INR: 36-Country Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
INR: 36-Country Real Effective Exchange Rate
My initial view was that the US recovers first. That is clearly not the case. In the initial phase of the recovery, both - rising risk appetite (equity rally) and interest rate differentials - should work against the US dollar. The rupee looks cheap and December 2009 forwards are pricing in rupee depreciation of about 1%. Both these factors should help if the dollar starts to strengthen.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Friday, August 21, 2009
Relative Value in Russian Equities
‘Dummy’ Day-Traders Whipsawing Russia Signals Buy
Completely agree. If this recovery is for real, Russian equities could deliver stellar returns.
Completely agree. If this recovery is for real, Russian equities could deliver stellar returns.
Food for All Palates
Manufacturing ISM: Looks Like a "V"
Existing Home Sales: Looks Like a "U"
If you look enough, you will find data that supports your view. That is why my endeavour is to find "view neutral" investment ideas. There were plenty of these at the start of the year with several asset classes discounting Armageddon. The low lying picks are gone now.
Existing Home Sales: Looks Like a "U"
If you look enough, you will find data that supports your view. That is why my endeavour is to find "view neutral" investment ideas. There were plenty of these at the start of the year with several asset classes discounting Armageddon. The low lying picks are gone now.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
SENSEX vs. USD/INR: NEGATIVE CORRELATION ALIVE AND KICKING
This negative correlation has been alive and kicking for a long time now. The mid-oughts' bull market in equities coincided with global dollar weakness. During the crisis, the ultimate safe haven status of US Treasuries provided a further boost to this inverse co-movement.
The big question is what happens to the US dollar as the global economy recovers. The answer to that depends on whether the world can decouple from the US. I remain sceptical of the decoupling argument, at least in the near-term.
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